The start of a new year always feels like we’ve got to the top of a dodgy ladder and fallen off, only to have to start climbing again. No guarantees and no foreknowledge of what exactly is to come.
OK, we can assume that 2011 is going to bring huge challenges to many people and life is going to be tough for individuals, families, businesses, institutions and charities:
- as unemployment shoots up, so there will be huge pressure on marriages (undermining family stability and affecting large numbers of children)
- history teaches us that this will put additional pressure on the NHS – particularly mental health services (which are already under-resourced and often hidden)
- radical public service cuts will have a direct effect on local economies which depend more on public services (particularly in the north of England)
- private businesses will consequently suffer in the wake of the above
- crime will increase, but the police will have fewer resources to address either the real situation or public perceptions of it.
And that’s just the miserable stuff for starters. You can add in predictions of continuing public unrest, direct protests against the effects of the cuts, and a growing public instinct for ‘doing something’ about it (an expression of human dignity and responsibility?).
So, no cheer then? Well, that depends. It is unclear whether faith communities and charities will be able to plug the gaps left by local or central government funding withdrawals. Asking people to give more to charity, though always desirable, is no answer to the problem of cuts to essential funding of local agencies who meet needy people where they are. Among others, churches may be deemed the appropriate agencies for rising to new challenges; but, so far, no research has been done into either capacity or competence.
In other words, we are walking blind into uncharted territory. I have sympathy with David Cameron’s vision for the Big Society, but I have serious doubts about it being deliverable in the short term – I can see it being undermined in both practice and theory by an over-ambitious and overly-radical programme of immediate (rather than programmed/staggered) cuts.
So, given the potentially overwhelming challenges that colour our view of the prospects for 2011 – internationally as well as nationally and locally – where might we turn for an overarching theme that might shape our approach to whatever lies ahead?
I think the Guardian put it well this morning in its editorial comment:
The cynicism which pervades public life at the dawn of 2011 is … a creed that ascribes the basest motives to everybody, and dismisses the very possibility of moral improvement. … mistrust is paralysing politics. It is evident in marketopian reforms which treat public servants as knaves to be slapped into line by the self-interested whack of the invisible hand. It is evident, too, in fear and loathing between the governing and governed, and – we admit – in newspapers being too gleeful about catching yet another snout in the trough. The great injustices of the day have at times been buried in a blizzard of dodgy receipts for duck islands and patio doors. The dismal worldview reaches its apogee in the rightwing blogosphere, where pundits parade as anarchists but subtly entrench hopelessness by decreeing every call for public virtue to be a cover for private vice. None of this is to deny the praiseworthiness of doubt and sceptical inquiry, preconditions for both good government and clear thought. But it is to hope, however vainly, for a collective resolution to extend a smidgeon more trust in considering what makes people tick.
Trust is essential and central to any constructive or positive approach to what lies ahead of us – which we have the responsibility to shape and not just to decry as if we are helpless victims. Trust assumes that we will take seriously the Common Good.
This means – taking the context of the Guardian’s piece seriously – that the media have a massive responsibility not only to question and critique, but also to see themselves as ‘players and participants’ of our society and drop the pretence of being disinterested, objective observers of everybody else. The media shape public perceptions of reality and motivation – and that makes them responsible agents in shaping society and the trust or cynicism that infect public life.
In All’s Well That Ends Well Shakespeare put is like this:
Love all, trust a few. Do wrong to none.
January 1, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Saying it as it is – is one of the hardest bullets to bite. But everything written here, resonates with me. I am afraid that my distrust of politics and the media inevitably effect the view of the world and the future for so many, who are in the poorer, vulnerable, categories in this country.
I hear and read of the likelihood of protests on the scale of the Poll Tax riots in the 1980′s, but I wonder if the people writing like this are just trying to provoke trouble in the interest of media coverage, rather than in the interest of the greater good.
I have a particular issue with those Union leaders who use the language of the street terrorist to forecast such issues ahead. I share their concern for their members and their livelihoods, but equally, there are millions more not in unions, without any such protection.
Where is their sense of proportion and responsibility. It sounds like a return tot he combative politics of the 1970′s when unions were a major part in the country being dragged down.
I can see the Churches being expected to pick up increasingly heavier social commitments, which they are not resourced, equipped or trained for.
The countries problems are huge, but can be overcome with foresight and cooperation from all parts, but will take time and the instant results the coalition seem to feel will happen are likely to take much longer.
Politicians continue to display a woeful ignorance of the real world and how people are barely or not coping now – and will be storing up huge social problems for the future if they do not start listening soon.
I hope and pray that they do.
January 2, 2011 at 8:52 am
For many, the outdoor lighting rekindles the magic of the Christmas holiday season. They spend hundreds of dollars for their only home of the brightest most festive on the road network. Some even in friendly matches with their neighbors on who has more lights. It ‘s a time when families together and enjoy the fun, food and laughter. There is nothing better than the snow falls on the house with bright colors during the holidays.
January 2, 2011 at 9:37 am
Nick I am not surprised that you sound a tad despondent after reading the New Year Day edition of the Guardian. i do not regularly buy a paper but as we had friends visiting for New Year’s brunch thought I ‘d buy a variety of papers for them to relax with.
I was quite surprised at how dispiriting the Guardian headlines were – a complete litany of despair headlines.
The First five?
“Mothers put at risk…”
“Ivory Cost Civil War looms…”
“Retailers hope fear of VAT rise will fuel weekend spree”
“Mothers put at risk…. ( again)”
“Cosmetic industry criticised…”
It is sensible to remind ourselves that if the Murdoch Press has at times been the bully pulpit for Thatcherism, then the Guardian is the Grievance Gazette of the Public Sector Unions. It would be financially unviable without the Government Job adverts.
Yet only the day before the Spectator had a different take in its end of year assessment.
Next year is predicted to be the third best economic year ever!
The” cuts” amount to a shrinkage of the State sector by 3.3% over 4 years. The cash spending of Government will actually rise in each of the next four years – which some on the Right criticise. ( Next Year we will pay all income to the State until 31 May according to the Taxpayers Alliance that monitors these things . Our State spends nearly 50% of the National income in comparison with “Communist”China that contents itself with 23%)
Whilst the prediction for Public Sector job losses is 330,00 over four years the same report predicts that 1.5 million public sector jobs will be created.
Abroad, the number of people living in absolute poverty shrunk last year by 10% – 98 million from 980 million – long way to go but progress nevertheless. The improvement has largely been seen in China and India which have embraced the market. (The Chinese Premier told George Bush that the thing that keeps him awake at night is wondering how to continue to create 25 million jobs every year).
Our Carbon emissions are down by 20% over 5 years and are falling.
Our ( ringfenced) Overseas Aid will soon hit the UN target of 0.7% of GDP which is an impressive priority for a Government in lean times when its predecessor could not achieve it in the boom years.
In Africa – thanks to western medical technology and generosity Aids cases have declined by 20% and those infected are living increasingly longer.
The winters seem to have returned and this is a necessary part of the ecology which in this country is doing rather better.
The Spectator concludes that ” the world is wealthier cleaner, healthier and fairer – and very little of this is thanks to the action of Government”.
So do cheer up there are – as Ian Drury sang – “Reasons to be cheerful”.
January 2, 2011 at 9:47 am
“… as unemployment shoots up, so there will be huge pressure on marriages (undermining family stability and affecting large numbers of children)”
)
- really? The British attitude to getting married (or staying married) seemed to get very casual during times of prosperity. How many children are now born out of wedlock? 45%? Among soem demographics, it’s over 70%. How many cohabit without marriage?
“… history teaches us that this will put additional pressure on the NHS – particularly mental health services (which are already under-resourced and often hidden)”
- again, are you sure about your ‘teacher’? Beware of simple correlations! How many ‘mental health’ problems are really to do with alcohol and substance abuse? Were there more mental health problems in the far poorer Thirties? Or the war years?
“… radical public service cuts will have a direct effect on local economies which depend more on public services (particularly in the north of England”
- “radical”? Like, the provision of clean water or street cleaning? Or what? You could ask why public expenditure continued to grow so large (as it has throughout the western world)throughout the last decade when it could only be sustained by public borrowing. The truth is, it was job creation under the sacrosanct banner of ‘services’. California and many US states have been through exactly the same scenario: a growing public sector that can be sustained only through taxation of the private sector. Now what is happening there is that the earners are leaving and the job-seeking immigrants are arriving. Mr Micawber had a word for it. Or you could ask about the super salaries in public sector employment. How much does the DG of the BBC get – £800,000? What do news readers get – £100k? (Fro the record, I’m sure you are not overpaid!
“private businesses will consequently suffer in the wake of the above
crime will increase, but the police will have fewer resources to address either the real situation or public perceptions of it.”
- do you mean there will be more vandalism or theft from shops? A boon for the security business, then! The British police must set their priorities (and salaries) like everyone else.
A tricky business being a prophet, Nick! Do you remember how you hailed Obama? Easier to learn lessons from the past, such as why Germany and Australia are riding this recession better than other countries. You haven’t put your finger on one of the roots problems: a decade of expanding a budget based on borrowing and fiancial speculation.
But the interesting question for New Year pundits/prophets is surely, what is going to happen in southern Europe and to the great euro project. Watch the Geramns on this! Guten Rutsch.
January 2, 2011 at 11:04 am
Steve & Martin, I am not actually despondent – just realistic about the human challenges ahead. Dealing with people on the ground (as we do) is not the same as looking at bald statistics, whatever story they tell. In relation to expansive public services, I do not necessarily disagree; but, I think we need a process for changing not only the reality, but the mindsets associated with it – and that is where I think the cuts are too quick, too severe and will have potential consequences that are not being taken as seriously as they might.
Steve, I think it might be you making the ‘simple correlations’ here. Drug and alcohol lie at the root of much social ill; but, to suggest that they account for the substance of mental health problems is somewhat simplistic. Have you ever worked in mental health – or have regular contact with the services dealing in this area?
I agree that the Euro project will be one of the most important issues of 2011, but it might not quite go in the direction you would like, Steve.
Anyway, I am not despondent – although waiting until the 92nd minute for Joe Cole’s winner against Bolton nearly pushed me there…
January 2, 2011 at 12:15 pm
Here, here Nick. Cynicism is the true enemy of us all. W3ent to a Billy Bragg concert just before Christmas and he inspired me to write this:
http://www.stedwardnewaddington.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=244&Itemid=81
January 2, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Nick I have no problem at all with taking seriously the worries of those who actually suffer or fear redundancy, and I know what it is like to have one’s world turned upside down through loss of position.
When it happened to me it was just before I was going for a few days holiday to Istanbul. Accosted there by a carpet salesman, I told him I could not afford to spend money on one of his carpets, “Just come and enjoy looking at them” he replied before ushering me into his shop and getting out the apple tea.
We got chatting and he gave me wonderful pastoral support. “This is terrible” he said before learning that I had a professional qualification. ” God is great- all will be well” he advised and reassured me – ” You have qualifications, people will know you and come to you”.
He was a real tonic and I left without the carpet but resolved to make a new life on my own account.
A year later, with a niche practice growing I returned as a matter of honour and bought a small carpet, having found that life outside the comfort zone can be better.
I am not so foolish as to believe that all have such positive experiences although I later became a minor support guru for several other legal aid lawyers who fell out with their partners . Legal Aid went 12 years without any pay increase and many lawyers and support staff lost their positions as Departments became unprofitable. Even now I know of a Solicitors firm imposing
a 16% pay cut across the Board – something unthinkable in the public sector.
Morale is important at such times however and we do not assist those entering transitions if we add to their fears and anxieties by constantly over-emphasising the downside. The new life can often be better, and without being Panglossian about it, it is important for people like me to offer testimony of hope based on actual experience of the problem.
Derbyshire lost its pits but gained Toyota. Likewise Sunderland and Nissan. Sandwich shop chains now have a higher value than steel mills, Wallace and Grommit are world beaters – odd but still relevant
It’s a bit like the theatrical productions in” Shakespeare In Love”
We don’t always know how things will pan out for the good but mysteriously they often do.The successful job creation will come from small businesses, it always does.
January 2, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Wise words, Nick.
Another problem that the church might run into in trying to shoulder some of the burden of caring for people is that it is no longer (if it ever was) the default option for people who are looking to help. I remember moving house a few years ago and wanting to get rid of some excess non-perishable food and not knowing where the local food bank was; I was quite surprised when someone I know suggested I contact the local church (in E2) to see if they could either make use of it or point me in the right direction. Despite having grown up involved in church, it simply didn’t occur to me as an obvious starting point. How many people with a less religious background than my own might be similarly clueless?
Further to that, there are many, many people who would like to help but who really don’t want to be involved with a religious organisation in the process. This may be because they have had negative experiences themselves or because they have heard things about support associated with religion either being contingent upon belief or being dished out alongside aggressive attempts at conversion. I think these are serious concerns and churches and other religious bodies will have to work hard to overcome such misconceptions — where they are, in fact, misconceptions. Of course we must also be on guard for helping “people like us” in preference to others.
I don’t really know how we can talk about the good, practical work that churches do, the unconditional love of communities, without seeming like we are talking more than doing, or appearing to gain some sort of karmic brownie points, or trying to convert people.
There is something to be said for Augustine’s assertion that Charity is no substitute for justice withheld. I am coming to believe that the current level of most people’s involvement in society — earn money, pay taxes, vote, give a bit to charity, maybe write to an MP now and then — is actually an abnegation of justice. In theory it should work, but in practice, without the human relationships that happen when people actually meet one another and work with one another, it’s too easy for us to decide we don’t want to pay tax so that another can have a safe place to live or enough to eat or appropriate medical care, it’s too easy for us to buy the cheapest merchandise even if we know the labour conditions are atrocious, it’s too easy for us to look away. If this is the correct then one of the things we must do, in addition to getting involved perhaps outside our comfort zones, is encourage others to do the same.
Regarding lack of expertise, I have been astounded at the number of people in the last month who have refrained from clearing snow outside their homes because they honestly believe they don’t know how to do it properly and will just make things worse. I know that growing up in Canada I have more experience than most Londoners in this, and that having the right equipment helps a lot too. But clearing snow from a walkway is not exactly a specialist activity for an able-bodied person. Neither is serving breakfast in a night shelter, or lending someone an ear and a kind word as the carpet salesman did for Martin in Istanbul and as countless people have done for me. Yes, there are things that do require specialist training and even significant funding, but a lot of the work is much simpler. I’m afraid that when people start talking about not having the competence to help I wonder if they are really asking what they can do.
As for capacity, I wonder if this would be improved if we all stopped worrying so much about competence (ie, getting our hands dirty), or on the flip side, doing work below our level of training, but perhaps I am wrong and it wouldn’t. In a conversation I had this afternoon it was noted that it always seems to be the same people who are doing the bulk of the work in communities; why is this the case, and what would happen if the others joined in?
January 5, 2011 at 9:58 pm
Anyone still here? The Spectator’s optimism cited above is attractive but if well founded you have to ask whether cuts really are simply party political after all.
If some do well over coming years it’s unlikely to be the poorest – whose bread winners’ jobs are at risk, whose low / fixed (or even indexed) income is worst hit by rapid food price inflation, and whose social networks are most reliant on services to be cut.
Optimism may work better in some places than others.